Iran’s Ties with China & the EU: Treading carefully, but deepening

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Florence Eid-Oakden, Ph.D, Chief Economist

Charlene Rahall, Nicki Siamaki, Analysts

Highlights include:

  • Ties between China and Iran are expected to deepen as Tehran seeks to benefit from the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative and Beijing needs Iranian oil supplies.
  • Higher EU investments in Iran may suggest that they are unlikely to want to see the nuclear deal undermined despite Trump’s threats.
  • Our baseline-scenario sees Trump refusing to certify the deal in May and the US continuing to threaten to undermine the deal if changes are not made — similar to the status-quo situation in 2017.

The Country Views series shines the spotlight on specific developments in MENA countries, analysing them from a local perspective to deliver forward looking views for businesses and investors.

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